As global leaders and investors gather in the Swiss Alps for the World Economic Forum, one question dominates the agenda: where will the next decade of growth come from? AGRA arrives in Davos to launch a year-long reflection on twenty years of AGRA and Africa’s agri-food sector, with a clear message; African agriculture, if scaled, is one of the world’s most under-invested and highest-return opportunities.
AGRA’s presence in Davos marks the opening of its AGRA@20 journey, carrying forward a year of global engagement focused on what two decades of experience make possible now. After twenty years of working alongside governments, farmers and markets across Africa, AGRA is using its 20th anniversary year to sharpen the case for scale, translating evidence into investable pathways that can raise farmer incomes, strengthen food systems and unlock shared prosperity across the continent.
Africa’s food system is projected to reach USD1 trillion by 2030, driven by rising demand, value-chain opportunities, exports and technology. This potential will only be realized if the system works for the 33 million smallholder farmers who feed it and the 150 million livelihoods it sustains.
“AGRA@20 is not a retrospective milestone but the opening of our next chapter,” said Alice Ruhweza, president of AGRA. “When smallholder farmers earn viable incomes, adoption sticks, markets stabilize and food systems become investable. The greatest risk today is not investing in African agriculture but failing to invest at scale.”
Why AGRA@20, and why now
Over the past two decades, AGRA and its partners have helped governments and markets improve access to quality seeds, soil health solutions, extension services and policy reforms across Africa. The lesson from that work is clear: when farming becomes economically viable, adoption sticks, markets stabilise and private investment follows.
AGRA’s evidence shows that farmers operating below break-even cannot sustain new practices or technologies. When farmers cross an annual income threshold of roughly USD 1,200, behaviour changes. Farmers reinvest, productivity improves and agriculture begins to function as a business rather than a safety net. Aggregating roughly 1,500 smallholder farmers creates a viable economic unit the private sector can serve profitably. At that scale, transaction costs fall, demand becomes predictable and services become investable.
“If smallholder farmers were a country, they would be the world’s largest underperforming economy, and its biggest opportunity,” said Ms. Ruhweza. “At 1,500 farmers aggregated, agriculture stops being aid and starts building agri-food businesses.”
What Two Decades of AGRA’s Work Have Delivered
Since its founding, AGRA has supported the release of more than 700 improved crop varieties, many bred to withstand drought, pests and disease, while working with governments and regional bodies to advance seed and fertilizer policy reforms that lower costs and expand access to inputs.
Independent assessments reinforce these outcomes. Evaluations conducted by Mathematica, drawing on farmer surveys and secondary data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and other sources, show increased adoption of improved seed, productivity gains and income growth in AGRA focus countries. In Nigeria, improved seed adoption reached over 50 percent nationally, supported by expanded private-sector capacity and community-based advisory networks. In Kenya’s arid counties, regenerative agriculture initiatives generated returns exceeding five times the value of investment, while strengthening resilience to climate shocks.
Why this lands at Davos
AGRA has chosen Davos to directly engage global capital allocators, policymakers, and corporate leaders, reframing African agriculture from aid dependency to economic infrastructure aligned with global priorities on growth, supply chain resilience, food security, and climate risk management.
The central message to investors: fragmentation is a scale problem—and Africa now has proven solutions.
AGRA@20 calls on governments, investors and partners to align capital, policy and delivery around one organising principle: farmer income is the metric that makes food systems resilient, investable and sustainable.
