Ghana is turning the corner; just to borrow the words of former Finance Minister, Ken Ofori-Atta. Why?Because, the rare but welcoming comeback staged by the local currency- the cedi is not only timely but also a perfect start for the current government.
For households, businesses and investors, the recent gains offer an early sign of reprieve after months or if you like, years of macro-economic turbulence. But as the country undergoes an ambitious reset of its economy, both fiscal and monetary authorities may have no option but to look beyond short-term currency appreciation and focus on sustaining the gains as market sentiments improve.
How well do they do this? Our best bet is one that is simply not too far but stares at us in the face. The performance of the cedi, while encouraging may prove temporary unless Ghana strategically harnesses some of its natural resources. Guess which resources and you will be right.
Ghana’s gold and cocoa sectors remain largely untapped. Though these sectors have faced mixed performance in recent years, they remain the bedrock of the country’s foreign exchange earnings and the most viable path to currency stability and overall economic resilience.
Per data from the Bank of Ghana, the cedi has appreciated by more than 50% against major trading currencies since January and trading at GH₵11.85 to the U.S. dollar at the end of May. Yes, this is a big relief for an economy recovering from severe debt distress and a prolonged contraction and a steep decline from 2023 and 2024 when it fell past GH₵15 to the dollar.
These gains according to the President has significantly reduced the dollar-denominated burden of the country’s external debt by $35 billion.
However, Ghana’s dependence on key commodities such as gold and cocoa remains a vulnerability. Prices for both remain elevated. Gold climbed to $3,400 per ounce and cocoa peaked near $12,000 per tonne earlier in 2025.
Though prices of these commodities fluctuate because of volatility pressures, relying on them to maintain the stability of the cedi will be key at least, to consolidate the gains in the medium to long-term.
Gold continues to power external earnings. Reserves reached its highest level in two years; hitting 32.16 tonnes in May 2025. The figure represents a 266% increase compared to the 8.78 tonnes recorded in May 2023 and is also a consistent upward streak in gold accumulation as the Central Bank ramps up its reserve diversification strategy.
Export revenues rose sharply from US$7.6 billion in 2023 to US$11.6 billion in 2024, according to official data. Projections indicate the value of gold exports could reach US$14.6 billion by the end of 2025. This increase in volumes and earnings is crucial in hedging against currency volatility.
“One of the key factors is the continued strength of gold prices. If gold remains high for the rest of the year, I can confidently say the cedi will continue to gain against the dollar. On the fiscal side, we’re approaching the mid-year review in July. If we see improved fiscal numbers and stronger commitments, those positive signals will continue to feed into the foreign exchange market”, Dr. Theo Acheampong, a Political risk analyst had earlier told Bernard Avle on the Point of View on Channel One TV.
Absa in its latest Cedi Report released in May 2025, challenged government to capitalise on the current momentum by building foreign exchange reserves. It pointed to several new gold mines including Cardinal-Namdini and Ahafo South which are set to begin production this year to boost earning potential.
On the cocoa side of things, the report notes that unlike Ivory Coast, Ghana has enjoyed more favourable rainfall patterns and this will be a major driver for a production rebound. Should this be achieved, Ghana’s current account surplus stands to improve to 5.1% of GDP in 2025, up from 4.3% last year – a development that could provide a critical buffer for long-term currency stability.
“The weakening of the US dollar due to global recession fears and trade tensions has worked in Ghana’s favour. At the same time, record-high prices for gold and cocoa have boosted our export earnings,” Economist and economic policy analyst at the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Prof. Eric F. Oteng-Abayie tells Citi News.
Again, gold holdings have surged from just under nine tonnes in May 2023 to over 31 tonnes by April 2025. This is largely due to expanded purchases from small-scale miners through the newly mandated Gold Board (GOLDBOD).
This accumulation has helped lift gross international reserves to US$9.4 billion as of April, up from US$6.2 billion a year earlier. It has helped the Central Bank to supply foreign exchange into the market without drawing down its buffers.
If you put all of these in perspective, the cedi’s rally may have room to run, but policymakers must act swiftly to fortify the gains.
Note this point – Ghana’s cocoa sector is experiencing a dramatic rebound. Export revenues increased to $1.84 billion in the first four months of 2025. It is more than triple the $579 million recorded during the same period in 2024. The sharp increase means Ghana has already surpassed its cocoa earnings for the first eleven months of last year and it’s indicative of a strong recovery in one of the country’s most crucial export sectors.
Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) is projecting a national output of 700,000 metric tons for the 2024/2025 crop season. This is 32% increase from the previous estimate of 531,000 metric tons. Factors accounting for this turnaround are favourable weather conditions, improved farm management practices and government interventions aimed at rehabilitating aged farms and combating smuggling
“The current situation mirrors past experiences, such as the 2007 and 2017 episodes, where currency stabilisation alone was not enough. Without structural reforms, the gains are often short-lived. To ensure long-term stability, Ghana must tackle domestic cost pressures, invest in infrastructure, strengthen market regulation and diversify its economic base beyond commodity exports,” Prof. Oteng-Abayie adds.
Indeed, gold and cocoa can cushion Ghana’s economic resilience and the overall stability of the local currency. Government must convert these commodity windfalls into quick capital gains.
The solutions are being proffered by industry players who are signalling that, the way forward will require deep structural reforms. Structural reforms that combine fiscal discipline, monetary prudence, value addition and export diversification.
Without these, the cedi gaining grounds through improved reserves and stronger commodity will not last and could push the country into another economic turmoil. This must be backed by a cautious stance on interest rates by the Central Bank to avoid bringing inflation back to elevated levels to erode the gains.
On the fiscal front, government must stick to its eight-pillar reset plan, contain expenditure and ensure sound debt management.
Gold and cocoa remain indispensable to the economic recovery and Ghana must seize the opportunity.
