Noting risks, report examines impacts of avian influenza, changing trade patterns since 2022, fish fraud, and shipping industry’s net-zero goals
FAO’s latest assessments indicate a relatively optimistic outlook for global food commodity markets, with production anticipated to increase across all commodities, except sugar, according to a new report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Regarding core agricultural commodities, world output of rice, maize, sorghum and oilseeds are expected to reach new record levels, according to the FAO Food Outlook, which also noted that global food production remains vulnerable to adverse weather conditions as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainties, and economic conditions.
“While agricultural production trends appear solid, drivers that could negatively impact global food security are increasing,” said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero.
The late biannual publication provides market assessments and updated forecasts for the production, trade, utilization and stocks of major food commodities, including wheat, coarse grains, rice, oilcrops, sugar, meat, dairy products, and fisheries. It also estimates the global food import bill and includes special thematic chapters addressing the impact of avian influenza, changing trade patterns since 2022, potential incentives for fish fraud in global agrifood systems, and the implications of decarbonizing the maritime sector for food imports.
- Global wheat production is forecast to increase modestly in the coming year, while per capita food consumption declines. Output gains are anticipated to be largely driven by a 13 percent increase in the European Union owing to a weather-driven upturn in yields, as well as a potential all-time record harvest in India driven by increased planting areas.
- Coarse grain production is expected to increase by 3.4 percent to a record level, buoyed by solid prospects in Brazil, the European Union and especially the United States of America, which is forecast to boost maize output by 6.0 percent mostly due to an expansion in sowings. More favorable weather ought to lift maize production in Southern Africa as well.
- FAO also released it first forecast for world rice production, anticipating a 0.9 percent annual increase to reach a new record high of 551.5 million tonnes, due mostly to anticipated production increases in Asia. International rice trade is forecast to expand by 1.4 percent in 2025 to reach a record high of 60.5 million tonnes, fuelled by strong demand from Africa and rising exports from India and South America. Global per capita food consumption of rice, the most important grain for human diets, is expected to increase globally, with a particularly robust 2 percent increase in Low-Income Food Deficit Countries.
The Food Outlook also presents FAO’s updated figure for the global food import bill (FIB) in 2024, which is estimated to have risen by 3.6 percent from the previous year to nearly USD 2.1 trillion. This increase was primarily driven by a 29.3 surge in import costs for coffee, tea, cocoa and spices, an 8.1 percent increase in the import bill for fruits and vegetables, and 5.6 percent rise in that for meat products. By contrast, the import bill for other food commodity groups declined, including a 4.6 percent decrease for cereals.
In 2025, trade tensions and policy uncertainty will likely affect the global food import bill by influencing import volumes and prices, especially for sensitive products like tropical beverages and animal goods. The impact will vary by country and commodity, depending on factors like import dependency and availability of alternatives. Adverse weather events and supply chain disruptions may further drive up import costs.
Avian influenza
The FAO Food Outlook includes a special feature examining how high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) is impacting the poultry sector around the world. Despite recurrent outbreaks over the past four years, poultry meat export patterns have remained resilient. In 2025, Brazil – the world’s third-largest poultry meat producer accounting for nearly 30 percent of global exports – reported its first commercial poultry farm case of HPAI.
Global hen egg production reached 91 million tonnes – or approximately 1.7 trillion eggs – in 2023, with China contributing 38 percent, followed by India and the United States at about 8 and 7 percent, respectively. Although only 2.2 million tonnes are typically traded, that volume nearly doubled in 2024. As a result, egg price volatility remains an issue.
The impact of HPAI on food production is mainly felt in the egg-laying sector, as broiler chickens have a shorter production cycle and are typically raised in closed housing systems.
HPAI has “escalated into one of the most significant biological threats to the global poultry sector,” affecting more than 173 million chickens in the United States of America alone since 2022 and triggering outbreak management and farmer indemnity costs exceeding $1.4 billion as of late 2024.
HPAI variants spready by migratory wild birds have long been a problem, but outbreaks since 2020 show a more persistent and widespread pattern with greater economic impacts.
The impact of HPAI on food production is mainly felt in the egg-laying sector, as broiler chickens have a shorter production cycle and are typically raised in closed housing systems.
Other special chapters
The Food Outlook contains a set of other special chapters on key topical issues.
One chapter analyses global fertilizer trade flows since 2022, highlighting the Russian Federation’s growing share in the global export market across most major fertilizer product categories. Another feature examines the shifts in global grain trade, noting that both the Russian Federation and Ukraine, which together account for nearly a quarter of global wheat, maize and barley exports, have shown resilience and adaptability.
A separate chapter explores the main derivers of international fertilizer prices, reporting that the cost of a basket of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers averaged $437 per tonne in May 2025, down from the historical peak of $815 per tonne in April 2022.
Another chapter assesses the economic incentives behind “fish fraud,” a risk heightened by the large volumes of aquatic foods globally traded, the complexity of supply chains, and the fact that many products lose distinguishing features once filleted or processed. Economic incentives can lead to practices as species substitution, falsification of the declared catch area, and presenting farmed fish as wild caught.
The last special chapter in the report discusses the potential implications of decarbonizing the international maritime sector for net food-importing developing countries.
SOURCE: Access Agric
