The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting a decline in global wheat production levels for 2026/2027.
This decline is partly due to a drop in the prospects for US wheat output for the same period.
The USDA projections come courtesy of its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projections, published in recent days.
According to Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) analysts, world wheat futures rallied on the release of these forecasts.
Significantly, WASDE estimated world wheat ending stocks for the 2025/2026 and 2026/2027 seasons were lower than the average trade estimate, by 3.7Mt and 5.5Mt respectively, supporting prices.
The USDA’s projected ending stocks for 2026/2027 on a global basis are 4.2Mt lower than 2025/2026, at 275Mt.
US wheat production
According to the USDA’s forecast, US wheat production in the 2026/2027 season could be the lowest in 53 years, also adding support to prices.
This is due to a smaller planted area together with drought in the US Plains, which will reduce wheat yields.
The forecast for smaller stocks in 2026/2027 will make markets more sensitive to threats to global supply in the weeks ahead.
However, compared to the five-year average, the USDA’s May forecast of global wheat ending stocks for the 2026/2027 period was still up by 1.3%.
This could limit the market reaction, unless the supply risks increase further.
Maize
Meanwhile, global maize ending stocks for the 2026/2027 season could be 6.5% lower than in the previous season and 8.9% lower than the five-year average.
If confirmed, this would also be the lowest level of global maize ending stocks since the 2013/2014 season.
Although global ending stocks of soybeans and rapeseed for the 2026/2027 season are higher than the five-year average, current prices are being supported by higher crude oil prices and biofuel demand.
Weather impacts will be key in the coming weeks.
Market prices
Winter wheat conditions in the northern hemisphere, and particularly the US, will be a key driver of price movement.
For maize, developments in Brazil’s second maize crop (impacting 2025/2026 stocks) and maize planting in the US, the EU, and Ukraine are watch points.
Following the publication of the WASDE May report, Chicago and Paris maize futures showed lower price increases compared with wheat, as the 2025/2026 world ending stocks were higher than the average trade estimate.
Maize prices have limited the increase in UK feed wheat futures to a certain extent, compared to other wheat futures.
In the UK, the price difference between milling wheat and feed wheat is influenced by the UK crop size and quality, plus global price trends.
Poor conditions for US winter wheat are underpinning global futures prices for milling-quality wheat, which may have knock-on impacts.
Source: agriland.co.uk