The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Ghana’s 2026 economic growth rate to 4.8%. This represents a marginal increase over the earlier 4.6% projection released this year. The IMF, in its Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, had initially projected growth at 4.6% for 2026, citing macroeconomic stabilisation and ongoing reform efforts.
However, sources close to the Fund told JoyBusiness that the upward revision reflects stronger-than-expected performance under the current IMF programme, an improved economic outlook, and government’s commitment to fiscal discipline. The new growth estimate aligns with government’s projection in the 2026 Budget presented to Parliament in November 2026.
IMF’s Global Economic Outlook and Ghana
The revision comes at a time when the IMF has downgraded the global growth outlook to 3.1% from 3.4% recorded in 2024.
According to the Fund, the downgrade is linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on the global economy. In its latest Global Economic Outlook report, the IMF warned that the global economy faces renewed uncertainty as geopolitical tensions threaten growth and disinflation.
The Fund outlined three scenarios, noting that if the conflict remains contained in duration and scope, global growth could slow to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Global inflation is expected to rise moderately in 2026, then ease again in 2027. Emerging and developing economies are likely to be the hardest hit.
The IMF cautioned that a prolonged or expanded conflict, worsening geopolitical fragmentation, shifts in expectations around artificial intelligence-driven productivity, or renewed trade tensions could further weaken growth and destabilise financial markets.
During a press conference in Washington DC, the IMF’s Chief Economist and Director of Research indicated that central banks, including the Bank of Ghana, should avoid rushing to increase policy rates in response to current disruptions. Instead, central banks are being urged to closely monitor developments before taking policy decisions. The IMF also expects global growth to pick up in 2027, with projections showing an increase to 4.9%.
Inflation Projection
The IMF is projecting that Ghana will end 2026 with an inflation rate of 7.9%. This is slightly lower than the government’s target, assuming current disinflation trends are sustained.
However, the Fund’s outlook suggests inflation, currently around 3.2% as of March, could rise in the coming months before settling at the projected level. Despite this, some analysts maintain that Ghana is likely to sustain single-digit inflation through 2026.
The IMF also forecasts an end-of-year inflation rate of 8% for 2027, indicating that inflation could remain within single-digit levels over the medium term.
World Bank on Ghana’s growth and inflation estimates
The growth projection is consistent with government estimates, but signals a slowdown compared to the 6% GDP growth recorded in 2025. While the specific drivers of the slowdown remain unclear, government has previously indicated caution due to external risks. The World Bank’s inflation forecast is higher than the government’s 8% target.
Analysts believe inflation may rise in the short term before easing towards the end of the year. External pressures, particularly developments in the Middle East and their impact on petroleum prices, remain key risks. Despite these uncertainties, Ghana is still expected to maintain single-digit inflation by the end of the year.
Source: myjoyonline.com
