U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said China is expected to commit to ‘double-digit billions’ in annual U.S. agricultural purchases over the next three years following the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. While this pledge could encompass a broad range of products, the 25 million metric ton annual soybean commitment from last October remains unchanged, worth over $10 billion on its own. The comments come as President Trump also voiced optimism about Chinese farm buying, though specifics on product breakdown remain unclear.
Factors influencing soybean price swings
•Soybean futures fell nearly 3% after no new export purchases were announced at the summit.
•Bessent’s comment that ‘soybeans are all taken care of’ dampened optimism for higher targets.
•USDA data showed a marketing-year low in weekly soybean export sales, pressuring prices.
•Soybean prices rebounded modestly as traders digested Greer’s broader farm purchase comments.
•Wheat futures rose on tightening U.S. production forecasts, while corn saw mixed moves.
Why soybeans may miss out on the new trade windfall
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that ‘soybeans are all taken care of’ under the existing Busan agreement, reinforcing market expectations that Beijing will not raise its soybean purchase target. Analysts cite weak Chinese domestic demand and competitive Brazilian prices as reasons for holding the line on soybean volumes. China’s share of U.S. soybean exports has dropped sharply since 2016, with only 15% of imports coming from the U.S. last year compared to 41% a decade earlier.
Source: Reuters
